The one sentence that best encapsulates the entire 2016 election for me is when Donald Trump said: “I could stand in the middle of 5th Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn’t lose voters.”

He may have meant it as hyperbole (at least I hope he did). But it isn’t far off the mark.

Over the months prior to Election Day, Trump’s popularity, as measured by polls, waxed and waned. But it remained impressively high throughout — with levels of enthusiasm unmatched by any other candidate. It survived the Access Hollywood video, tax return revelations, the Trump Foundation and Trump University scandals — and everything else. Trump not only survived all of these things but — as we now know — thrived well enough to claim victory in the end.

True, many of Trump’s supporters expressed disapproval and dismay at his words and actions throughout the campaign. But, in the end, they voted for him anyway, minimizing the seriousness of his transgressions. Part of the explanation for this may be attributed to weaknesses in Clinton as an opponent, but most of the credit goes to Trump himself.

Now it is post-election. Trump has won.

Post-election, Trump supporters are finding themselves tested by a different set of challenges. Trump has significantly modified — or outright reversed — many of his signature positions, ones that generated the most enthusiastic support. To cite a few key examples:

• Pre-election, Trump promised he would appoint a special prosecutor to look into Hillary Clinton’s “crimes.” Now he wants to leave her alone and not prosecute at all.

• Pre-election, Trump described Obamacare as a complete disaster — and vowed to repeal it on “Day 1.” Now, he wants to retain significant parts of it — and may not be in a hurry to repeal any of it.

• Pre-election, Trump declared that all 11 million illegal immigrants would be deported almost immediately. Now, he is talking about focusing only on the 2 million that are “criminal.”

• Pre-election, Trump asserted that climate change was a “hoax.’ Now he says he has an “open mind” about it.

Some of these reversals will no doubt be tolerated as typical of what every candidate does to some extent, pre- vs. post-election. Plus, with Trump, who knows, he may yet un-reverse himself in the days ahead. Still, if Trump continues in his current direction, you have to wonder if his supporters will stay with him — or will they instead come to feel betrayed by his wholesale abandonment of campaign promises?

I’m confident there will be no rebellion. His support will hold — at least for the next several months.

Assuming I’m right, you might reasonably ask: “So what do Trump supporters care about? What would it take for Trump’s supporters to abandon him?”

In my view, Trump’s support rests on three pillars (and only the first two are critical). Maintain these and Trump’s supporters will forgive everything and anything else.

First, and foremost, Trump’s campaign rhetoric resonated with “downtrodden” working and middle class whites who have long felt ignored by the “establishment.” He promised these people that he would bring back jobs and spark economic recovery in their regions of the country. If he ultimately delivers on this promise  (which I personally believe is very doubtful), he will be re-elected in a landslide.

Second, supporters of all economic stripes view Trump as an agent of change, someone who promised to shake up Washington (“drain the swamp”) and generally do things differently from the status quo. As long as Trump can convince the public that these perceptions are accurate, he will remain popular — even if he reverses an assortment of specific pre-election positions. Further, by generally aligning himself with a conservative agenda, he can hold on to the majority slice of traditional Republicans, even if their support is reluctantly given.

Last, and hopefully least, he appeals to the extreme “alt-right” and other bigoted segments of the population. He openly says things — about immigrants and Muslims and women and more — that had been kept covert in previous elections. This is enormously appealing to these extremists. As long as he does things such as appointing Steve Bannon to a position of power, these extremists will remain by his side. They are not a majority of the country, by any means. They are not even a majority of Trump’s supporters. But they are among his most enthusiastic supporters — and they are big enough to make a difference.

What then will happen if these pillars begin to crumble? Will it lead to election losses in the future? A lot depends on how well the Democrats are able to take advantage of such a development (something which is very much open to question). But it could indeed lead to a downfall. On the other hand, if Trump keeps these three pillars intact, nothing else will matter — perhaps not even his shooting someone on 5th Avenue. So don’t be surprised when Trump’s reversals and hypocrisies leave him unharmed. It’s likely to be Trump’s America for years to come.

Note: This is just the latest of several missives I’ve written recently about the 2016 election. You can view the rest of the them by scrolling through my Facebook page.

The vacuousness of Donald Trump’s answers in the debate last Thursday was truly astounding. And to the extent there was any substance to what he said, it was almost always factually wrong.

Two quick examples:

When asked what he would do to fix Common Core, Trump replied he would get rid of “education through Washington, DC.” That was completely vague. There was no mention of even one thing he would specifically change to accomplish this goal. But it also turns out to be wrong, as the moderator pointed out (and later confirmed by others) when he noted that states and local governments actually set the Common Core agendas.

When asked about his position on Social Security, Trump said he would maintain it at its current levels. To pay for this, despite growing deficits, he said he would get rid of “waste, fraud, and abuse.” Again, this is completely vague, offering no specifics of what precisely he would cut to reduce the waste etc. And again, the entire notion is factually in error, as the moderator pointed out when he noted that, according to several analyses, the total amount of “waste, fraud and abuse” in Social Security only accounts for a small fraction of its deficit.

And so it goes.

And when challenged to defend his statements intended to incite violence against protestors at his rallies (such as this one), Trump countered that the protestors were the “bad guys” and had started the trouble. Even if true, this would by no means justify his schoolyard bully replies, especially coming from a potential President of the United States. Further, as the moderator yet again pointed out, there is no evidence that supports the truth of his assertions.

As a last avenue of attempted escape from this dilemma, Trump now claims some of these incidents never happened. Incredible!

Despite all of this, my initial read of “mainstream media’s” coverage of the debate found almost no mention of any of these matters. The press instead chose to focus on how “subdued” and “policy-oriented” the debate was, making the whole affair, including Trump, sound almost positive. The press is far too timid here, but that’s hardly a surprise.

It goes without saying that none of Trump’s antics will dissuade any of his supporters to change their minds at this point. Their brains are already on “do not disturb.” In many ways, this is the bigger problem. There will always be people like Trump running for office. We’ve seen it before. We’ll see it again. But never before have so many voters seemed so willing to elect one of these people President.

That’s the bottom line: It is both scary and embarrassing to think that someone like Trump could actually become the next President of the United States.

[Note: I originally posted a version of this on Facebook.]

In a recent column for Time (These Terrorist Attacks Are Not About Religion), Kareem Abdul-Jabbar put it bluntly:

“When the Ku Klux Klan burns a cross in a black family’s yard, Christians aren’t required to explain how these aren’t really Christian acts.

Most people already realize that the KKK doesn’t represent Christian teachings. That’s what I and other Muslims long for—the day when these terrorists praising Mohammed or Allah’s name as they debase their actual teachings are instantly recognized as thugs disguising themselves as Muslims.”

At first glance, I find Abdul-Jabbar’s analogy to be compelling. Comparing extremist Muslims to the Ku-Klux-Klan makes a lot of sense. They are both hate-filled violence-prone minorities. However, on closer examination, the analogy begins to fall apart.

For one thing, by whose authority does Abdul-Jabbar assert that the terrorists are “disguising themselves as Muslims” — as opposed to being true Muslims? I assume that members of Al-Qaeda would make the same accusation about Abdul-Jabbar. As I have previously asserted, there are minority segments of all religions. Being a minority, even a violent minority, does not mean you cannot also be a legitimate member of a religion. There are certainly those would claim that advocating violence is as much a part of religious teachings, both Muslim and Christian, as advocating peace.

As for the terrorists who gunned down the staff of Charlie Hebdo — it is true that they are small in number. However, these terrorists were not just a bunch of thugs acting in isolation. They are not, as Abdul-Jabbar suggests, the equivalent of  “bank robbers wearing masks of presidents.”

Rather, the terrorists were trained and backed by Al-Qaeda in Yemen. And Al-Qaeda does not exist in a vacuum. It survives in part because of support from the population and authorities in the countries where they reside. Many Muslims in these countries offer tacit approval of such acts, even if they assert that they would never carry out such acts themselves.

Here is where I believe that Abdul-Jabbar’s Ku Klux Klan analogy is at its most accurate, although not in the way he intended. We shouldn’t look at the analogy from the point of view of a comfortable American living in 2015. Rather, look at it from the perspective of an African-American living in the deep South in the 1950’s.

Here you are, a black person at the time when the Ku Klux Klan’s power and influence were at their height. The Klan may represent only a tiny minority of the Christian population around you. They may represent a distorted view of Christianity, one that Christ himself would reject. Indeed, as a black person, you likely attend a Christian church that holds very different views.

Regardless, you know that none of this really matters. The larger truth is that the Klan survives because it is tolerated by the rest of the community. More than that, much of the community quietly approves of what the Klan is doing, even if they would never participate in its actions.

Indeed, the majority population of the Southern states are overtly racist. As a black person in the South in the 1950’s, you see this every time you are humiliated by the institutionalized racism that surrounds you. You have to go to the back of the bus. You can’t use the “whites only” water fountain. Schools are completely segregated. You can’t buy a house in most neighborhoods of a city. You can’t even vote. And you risk getting beaten by the police for challenging any of these restrictions. This racism is sanctioned by the government, all the way from the local councilman to the governor of the state.

This is the full picture of the time of Ku Klux Klan. With this full picture in mind, we see that the analogy to the Muslim situation today is apt, but differently than the way Abdul-Jabbar asserts.

Today, we see a Muslim world in the Middle East where, like the deep South decades ago, the population is unwilling to speak out against the actions of the extremists. Too often, the silence masks a disturbing approval of these actions. The supporters may not represent the majority— but they are far from a trivial component. In many instances, discrimination is institutionalized — even towards other members of the Muslim faith* — as seen in the gross inequality toward women and harsh penalties (including death) for those who rebel against the faith. And, of course, anti-Semitism is rampant everywhere.

The Ku Klux Klan was an extreme manifestation of racism in the South, but not the exclusive or even primary proponent of it. I believe the same is true today for the Muslim extremists in the Middle East.

If and when the day ever comes that the views of Abdul-Jabbar are representative of all parts of the Muslim world, I will happily join Abdul-Jabbar in what he “longs for.” Until then, I contend that these terrorist attacks are about religion — not the religion as Abdul-Jabbar practices it, but religion none-the-less.

* Just saw this today: Egypt student gets 3-year jail term for atheism.