The myth that AppleCare+ is worth it

[Note: See also my latest (April 2016) take on this subject: Why AppleCare+ is still not worth it.]

Back in 2006, I advised against getting AppleCare for your Mac, arguing that the odds that it would save you money were too low to make it worth buying. In 2011, I reached the same negative conclusion regarding AppleCare+ for iOS devices.

While I thought I had built a pretty air-tight case, there are apparently still people who remain unconvinced. The myth persists that AppleCare is worth getting. As one recent example, a Cult of Mac column, discussing AppleCare for the iPhone 6 and 6 Plus, stated: “AppleCare+ should be strongly considered for those devices.”

Had something changed since 2011? I decided to take a closer look. I found that nothing had changed. Except for a few rare circumstances, AppleCare+ remains as bad a deal as it ever was.

To see why, let’s look at exactly what AppleCare+ covers. AppleCare+ for an iPhone 6 offers two years of coverage for $99. For the moment, let’s ignore accident protection and just examine the basic coverage.

Basic coverage

The most critical point to grasp is that AppleCare’s coverage is very limited. You don’t even have a chance of saving money with AppleCare except during a relatively narrow window.

Basic AppleCare only covers things that are not your fault, such as failures due to manufacturing defects. One year of this same basic coverage is included free with each iPhone.

This means, for covered service issues, purchasing AppleCare+ is a complete waste of money for the first year.

Further, most things that go wrong with an electronic device due to manufacturing defects and such tend to happen within the first year. This means that the second year of coverage is not likely to be of much value either. And if you happen to be someone who gets a new iPhone every year, selling or trading in the old one, the second year of coverage is entirely irrelevant.

By the third year, you have to pay for any repairs, whether or not you purchased AppleCare+. Once again, having AppleCare+ becomes worthless at this point.

In other words, the only time that AppleCare+ can be of any help here (and it’s a low chance) is during the 12 month interval between one and two years after you purchase the iPhone.

Even if something does go wrong during this second year, it still may work out to your disadvantage to have paid for AppleCare+. For example, if your iPhone 6 battery dies, you can get a new one for free with AppleCare+. Without AppleCare+, it will cost you $79. This means that, should this turn out to be the only time you need AppleCare+, you will have paid $20 more for the replacement battery by getting AppleCare+ than if you had foregone the coverage.

From a probability perspective, I can’t see any way to argue that AppleCare+ is likely to pay off for basic coverage.

Accident protection

AppleCare+ offers one additional benefit: you get two years protection against “accidental damage.” This is protection that the one year free warranty does to cover at all. As such, people who favor AppleCare+ typically cite this as the key reason to buy it.

However, if you take a closer look, you’ll find that even the accidental damage protection is not likely to work to your advantage.

First, bear in mind that “accidental damage” does not cover a lost or stolen iPhone. You are still on your own if either of these things happen.

Second, each accident incident (and you are limited to a maximum of two) will cost you an additional $79. So, for example, if you need to replace a shattered screen it will cost you $79 if you have AppleCare+. Without AppleCare+, replacing the screen of an iPhone 6 will cost you $109 (for the 6 Plus, it’s $129). In other words, getting AppleCare+ for an iPhone 6 would only save you $30 here (and that’s not counting the $99 you paid to get AppleCare+ in the first place). To me, that’s not enough incentive to make it worth shelling out $99 for AppleCare+ — money that you will never recoup if nothing goes wrong with your iPhone.

However, if you don’t have AppleCare+ and you need to entirely replace your iPhone 6, it will cost you $299 ($329 for an iPhone 6 Plus). At last, here is a case where it seems you can save significant money if you purchased AppleCare+. It is this scenario that leads to online postings such as:

“I dropped my iPhone the other day and it completely broke. I needed to get the phone replaced. Because I had AppleCare+ coverage, it only cost me $79. I would have had to pay $329 otherwise. I’m so glad I had AppleCare. Definitely worth it. Highly recommend everyone getting it.”

First off, the person glosses over the fact that they also had to pay $99 to get AppleCare+. But let’s ignore this for now. The larger problem with such postings is that they are anecdotal. As I pointed out previously, anecdotal evidence by itself is essentially worthless. That’s because, for every anecdote supporting one point of view, someone can come up with a counter-anecdote that supports the other position.

For example, take my own situation. I have owned 8 iPhones. I started with the original iPhone in 2007 and have gotten a new one every year since (the older one transfers to my wife). I never purchased AppleCare for any of them. Only one of the phones ever needed an out-of-warranty repair — and that occurred after the device was more than two years old. Had I purchased AppleCare at the current $99 price for all of these phones, I would now be almost $800 in the hole. Clearly not worth it.

Actually, if the person quoted above had considered all of their iPhone purchases (as I did), they too might have come to my conclusion. For example, if this was their fourth iPhone and the first time they needed a replacement or any other repair, they would have spent $479 to save $329. Looking only at your most recent purchase (or any single purchase among many that you have made) gives a potentially false picture.

But let’s not place any more value on my negative experience than on someone else’s positive one. As isolated anecdotes, they are both useless as a means of helping you decide whether or not you should buy AppleCare.

What would help is some sort of experiment — such as picking 1000 iPhone owners at random and following them for four years — and seeing whether or not AppleCare+ would have saved or cost money in each case. In the absence of such data, what other options do you have for making an intelligent decision? Here’s what I would recommend:

• Assess the likelihood that you will damage your iPhone

Some people are more clumsy or careless or rough with their phones than are others. Are you the sort that frequently drops your iPhone? Or has that never happened? If you’ve owned smartphones for several years, consider your track record. Have you needed to replace a damaged phone once a year or so? Or have you never needed a replacement? If you find yourself on the “bad” end of this spectrum, perhaps you should get AppleCare+.

• Assess your finances

If you needed to pay $329 to replace your iPhone 6 Plus tomorrow, could you afford to do so? Or would you possibly have to forgo having a phone at all? If it’s the latter, perhaps it’s worth the peace of mind to get AppleCare+.

However, bear in mind that, by getting AppleCare+, it will still cost you $178 ($99 + $79) to replace a broken iPhone. In the long run, I would argue that you’re more likely better off putting the $99 in a bank account each time you buy a new iPhone, saving the money to cover the cost of a possible replacement phone down the road.

So where does all this leave you?

Getting AppleCare+ for any reason other than accident protection is definitely not worth it. As for accident protection, if neither of the above two assessments tilt clearly towards getting AppleCare+ (and I suspect that it won’t tilt that way for most iPhone users), then I would still strongly advise against getting AppleCare+. Remember: this is a probability assessment, not a guarantee. AppleCare+ could still save you money in some unlucky circumstances — but the odds are against it.

Bottom line? For the vast majority of iPhone owners, AppleCare+ remains “a sucker’s bet.”

This is why iOS 8 is such a big deal

Believe the hype!

iOS 8 is the most important, most game-changing update to iOS since…well, since the arrival of the App Store in 2008.

I don’t say this because of all new features in iOS 8. There are many new features…so many that I’m still discovering some of the lesser known ones.

I don’t say this because of how nicely iOS 8 smooths out the rough edges of previous iOS versions. To take one example, you can now answer messages while staying in your current app rather than having to switch to the Messages app. This is all true, but that’s not the most critical change.

It’s not even the Handoff feature, which allows you to start a document on one device and automatically pick it up in progress on any other of your devices, OS X or iOS. Impressive as it is, it’s not the biggest deal.

The biggest deal is the greatly expanded “openness” in iOS 8. It’s as if iOS had been living in a shuttered room with the curtains drawn — and now the windows have been thrown open and the sun is pouring in. Yes, the change to iOS is that big. And the primary benefactor behind all of this openness are iOS 8’s extensions: Actions, Custom keyboards, Document providers, Sharing, Widgets and such. Taken together, these represent a profound philosophical shift in how Apple views iOS.

Working our way back to iOS 8

I’ve been writing about iOS since I wrote a book about it back in 2007. I marveled at the iPhone back then and continue to do so. At the same time, I’ve never stopped lamenting about the limitations of iOS, limitations that I believed Apple could easily address if it chose to do so. It has at last chosen to do so.

Although iOS is essentially a variation of the Mac’s OS X, Apple has never provided any of the Mac-like access to the iOS file system. There is no Finder in iOS, no way to see the files and folders that exist.  There has been no way to manipulate where you stored the documents you created. There are similarly no iOS apps that can directly access the file system, apps such as Terminal.

There is no way to connect an iOS device to a Mac and mount it as an external drive, as you can do with an iPod. Conversely, there is just about no way to physically connect an external drive to an iOS device.

There have been only limited ways to share files between Macs and iOS devices. There has been no seamless way for two iOS apps to work on the same document. In fact, due to sandboxing, an iOS app typically is not even aware of the existence of documents created in other apps.

Similarly, there have been only very limited ways that one app can work within another app. There have been no system-wide utilities, such as exist in OS X.

Also recall that when the iPhone was first released, Steve Jobs was opposed any sort of third-party App Store. All third-party software was to work as web apps. Even after he was convinced to change his mind here, the “curated” App Store remained the only way to get apps on your iPhone (unless you chose to jailbreak your device).

And on and on. You get the idea.

Each new update to iOS brought the promise that things would get better. And while each release did move the ball a bit further down the field, Apple still was quite a distance from the end zone. Until now. Until iOS 8. It changes everything. Well, almost everything. Certainly more than enough to get excited about.

iOS struts its stuff

To give you a small taste of what I mean, here are three key examples:

TextExpander. TextExpander on a Mac is a great utility…allowing you to type keyboard shortcuts that instantly expand to longer text or even graphics. There’s also an iOS version, but it has not been nearly as useful. Why? Because, due to iOS sandboxing, TextExpander could not function in most apps. Third-party apps had to specifically add in support for TextExpander. Most did not. And even if they did, it did not always work as promised.

This problem is now gone…vanished…over. The latest version of TextExpander touch for iOS 8 includes a TextExpander custom keyboard. With the keyboard active, TextExpander shortcuts work in any app that has access to the iOS keyboard. Fantastic!

[Note: How do you set this up? Briefly, after installing the TextExpander app, go to Settings > General > Keyboard > Keyboards. From here, select Add New Keyboard. Once you’ve added, the TextExpander keyboard, you activate it from the Globe icon/key on the iOS keyboard in any app.]

Adding custom keyboards, such as SwiftKey and TextExpander

1Password. The 1Password app is another superb OS X utility that has had trouble making the transition to iOS. With 1Password, you can save all of your passwords in a single location. To use any of them, all you need to remember is the single password for 1Password. The most frequent destination app for 1Password is a web browser, due to all the Internet accounts that require names and passwords to log in.

In iOS, “web browser” typically means Mobile Safari. Unfortunately, prior to iOS 8, there was no way for 1Password to work in Mobile Safari. To work-around this, AgileBits built a web browser into the 1Password app. In other words, using 1Password regularly could mean giving up on Safari, something most users did not want to do.

With iOS 8, the dilemma has been resolved. You can now enable the 1Password action extension in Safari (as well as other apps). Once it’s up and running, 1Password appears as a sort of mini-app within Safari.

[Note: To get this working in Safari, after installing the 1Password app, go to Safari and tap the Sharing item. From here, swipe the bottom row to get the More button to appear. Tap More. Scroll down to locate the 1Password item and move the slider to turn it on. Tap Done and you are ready to roll. Return to the same bottom row of Sharing. There will now be a 1Password item. Tap it and the 1Password login window will appear!]

The 1Password extension, as seen in Safari on an iPad

Document Picker. I’ve saved the best for last. File sharing has always been one of the weakest links in iOS. At first, it was almost unusable. It’s gotten better, but even with iOS 7’s Documents in the Cloud, much was left to be desired. As one example, if you saved a TextEdit or Preview document to iCloud on your Mac, there was no way to access the document on your iOS devices — because iOS 7 apps could only open documents created by the matching app on a Mac — and there was no matching iOS versions of TextEdit or Preview.

Again, all of this has changed for the better in iOS 8. Because OS X 10.10 Yosemite has not yet been released, not all of the cross-platform features of Document Picker are available yet. And very few iOS apps have been updated to take advantage of the option as yet. As a result, I still have several questions about how all of this works. But here is what I do know:

Document sharing, and what options are available, can vary from app to app. Following a tip from an excellent article by Federico Viticco, I tested the Document Picker in the updated Scanner Pro and Dropbox apps.

[Note: To find the Document Picker in Scanner Pro on a iPad (it works a bit differently on an iPhone), navigate to Sharing > More > iCloud Export. The iCloud Drive export window appears. You can save documents to any of the listed locations. Apple has never supported anything close to this before.]

The iCloud Export screen from Scanner Pro, with the Locations menu visible

A similar iCloud Drive import window in another app will allow users to open documents stored in iCloud drive — as long as the app is compatible with the document type and has been updated to support the feature. Different apps will be able to view and edit the same document, not just a copy, allowing changes made in one app to be reflected in the other.

This will work with documents shared between the Mac and iOS devices as well as among iOS apps. Yes, this means documents created in TextEdit or Preview on a Mac will finally be openable by iOS apps!

I was hoping to test all of this out with Apple’s iWork apps (Pages, Numbers, Keynote). Unfortunately, the iOS versions of these apps, while they support iCloud storage (as they did in iOS 7), they do not yet provide access to iCloud Drive and the Document Picker. Perhaps that will come after Yosemite is released. Or perhaps not. As far as I know, Apple has not commented on this.

Back at Scanner Pro’s iCloud Export screen, you can see a Location button in the upper left corner. Tap it to bring up a list of other export locations besides iCloud Drive. If no other items appear, tap the More button to see what choices you have.

On my iPad, I can choose Dropbox. This gives me the option to export/save a document to any location in Dropbox. As this is a system-wide feature, it means that any app that includes support for the Document Picker can automatically have Dropbox access. No longer will developers have to separately add Dropbox support to their apps.

Apple (and app developers) still need to do some interface cleanup. For one thing, it’s a bit of a misnomer to select Dropbox from a screen labeled iCloud. Overall, there are too many different variations and circuitous paths involved in the iCloud options. It needs greater simplicity and consistency. And some bug fixes. I’m optimistic this will all get better as time goes on (although we may have to wait for iOS 9 for really big improvements).

Regardless, this is a huge shift for Apple. True, iOS 8 doesn’t have all the file access available on a Mac (there’s still no Terminal app in the App Store, for example). And it probably never will; it’s not Apple’s goal to do so. Apple sees the needs and wants for iOS devices differently than for Macs. But iOS 8 provides users and third-party developers with a new level of openness and inter-app communication that is a quantum leap beyond what existed before. It addresses all of the most pressing concerns. This is what makes iOS 8 such a big deal.

I believe this change in direction is a deliberate move that can be traced back directly to Tim Cook. For me, that’s why, even more so than the forthcoming Apple Watch, this is the clearest evidence that it’s really Tim Cook’s Apple now.

The last word on the iPhone 6 vs. 6 Plus decision

By now, if you’re in the market for a new iPhone, you’ve probably scoured a dozen articles advising how to choose which model to get: the 4.7 inch iPhone 6 or the 5.5 inch iPhone 6 Plus. So, while I have no illusions that this is the first or only article you’ve read on this subject, it could be the last one you need to read.

For some buyers, there is no tough choice here. They  know exactly what they want. “It’s iPhone 6. No way I want a phone that’s so big that my small hands can’t even grasp it” or “The 6 Plus is the size I’ve been waiting for. I can finally dump my iPad mini and go with just one portable device.”

For the rest of us, and this includes myself as well as I suspect the vast majority of buyers, the decision is far less certain. That’s what drove people to make cut-outs of the different sizes before pre-ordering last week, so they could take the models for a quasi-test drive. The trouble is, even if you now go to your local store and play with each model for awhile, the choice may still not be clear.

Each model has its pros and cons. For example, I found it impossible to hold and use the iPhone 6 Plus as a camera one-handed. But, the iPhone 6 Plus has Optical Image Stabilization not present with the iPhone 6. Which way does the balance tip here? I’m not sure.

And so it goes. Do I want the largest possible display, an iPhone that can almost double as an iPad? Or do I want a more compact, portable device that is still easy to use with one hand. If I could test out each device for a couple of weeks, I might figure this out for sure. But that’s not financially practical.

Whatever I decide, it doesn’t mean that I would recommend the same choice for you. Which model is better for you depends on how you see yourself using the iPhone. The more you view the phone as a pocket computer rather than a phone with extra features, the more you’ll likely lean toward the Plus.

In the end, neither model may prove the right one in all situations. You’ll have to figure out which device you prefer most of the time because you won’t prefer either model all of the time.

As a related example, I purchased both an iPad Air and an iPad mini last year. For the first month or so, I alternately used one or the other — in attempt to decide which one would be my primary device. Some days the mini seemed too small — when I was reading the New York Times or playing a game where precision aiming was important. Other times, the iPad Air seemed too big…when reading a book or when using it for almost anything while out of the house. The Air was the better choice when paired with a physical keyboard. It’s larger size made it superior for watching video. The mini was better when I wanted to quickly look things up on the web, check the weather or other similarly small tasks.

In the end, I stayed with the Air, as it was the device I wound up wanting most of the time. But there were still days I would have preferred the mini. And so it will be with the iPhone 6 and 6 Plus.

Let’s not make too much of this dilemma. This should be the worst problem you ever have, as my mother would have said. Both iPhones are spectacularly designed devices. Neither one will be a disappointment.

I am especially impressed with their displays. I didn’t think they could be that much better than the one on my iPhone 5S (which was already excellent). But they are. The images are brighter, sharper and seem less pixellated. They almost appear as if they are painted on the glass.

So, when crunch time came, what was my choice? I went with the iPhone 6.

What ultimately tipped the scales for me was that the iPhone 6’s display was larger than I anticipated. And I mean that as a good thing. After reading all the hype following Apple’s media event, I was prepared for the iPhone 6’s display to be almost unrecognizably bigger than my iPhone 5S. Not so. It’s way bigger. I can type more accurately with it. I read small text more easily. Photos appear distinctly larger. Games are more pleasant to play. The iPhone 6 turned out to be sufficiently big that I didn’t feel the need for the larger 6 Plus with all the compromises it required.

Still, the iPhone 6 Plus was not as ungainly big as I had imagined. Passing one critical test, it fit easily into the front pocket of my blue jeans. If the 6 Plus was my only option, I would be content with it. Who knows? Maybe I will be ready to move up to an iPhone 6S Plus next year. But no Plus for me this time around.

One more thing: my iPhone — with its curved glass display, super-thin design and space-gray back — looks and feels so good that I decided a case would ruin the effect. So I am going without a case for the first time.

My decisions have been made. Once I gave up on the idea that there had to be a sure “correct” decision, it became a lot easier to make one. Hopefully, this helps in making your choice. Good luck!

Apple hardware: Break’s over

Apple’s hardware division has been pretty much operating on cruise control for more than two years. At least that’s the way it seems to me. While Apple’s software has been steadily and significantly evolving (both OS X Yosemite and iOS 8 represent major advances), hardware not so much. Happily, this lag should end next week. With Apple’s September 9 media event, the company finally appears poised to put its foot to the hardware accelerator. But, before we get to that, let’s take a brief look back.

Hardware history

As I noted in a recent column here, it has been almost two years (October 2012) since Apple updated the Mac mini. This delay is hardly the exception. It’s been more like the rule:

• Apple’s most recent stand-alone display is the Thunderbolt display, released three years ago (July 2011).

• The last time Apple TV got even a minor hardware update was over two years ago, back in March 2012.

• The most recent iPod nano and iPod touch models are two years old, last updated in September 2012 (not counting the very minor update to the 16GB touch this year).

• The 15-inch MacBook Pro with Retina display was introduced in June of 2012, over two years ago. Although a 13-inch model was later added, and there have been a few speed bumps along the way, the basic design has not changed over this period of time.

• The situation is about the same for the MacBook Air. Indeed, the opening sentence of Macworld’s review of the 2014 MacBook Airs is: “There’s not much new about Apple’s updated MacBook Air lineup.”

• Moving to Apple’s iconic desktop model, the most recent iMac design (with the almost “invisible” edge) is now two years old (October 2012). Stretching farther back, while Apple added Thunderbolt to the iMac in 2011 and has made other minor improvements from time-to-time, the face of the iMac looks about the same today as it did when the silver-and-black model first shipped in 2007!

• Apple did release a major upgrade to the Mac Pro recently…but that replaced a model that had stagnated for several years prior. Consider this: until the new Mac Pro came out last December, the existing Pro models didn’t even have a Thunderbolt port!

• As for the iPhone, it’s been two years since the iPhone 5 introduced the 4-inch display. Except for Touch ID, not much has changed since.

• The iPads — with last year’s iPad Air and iPad Mini with Retina display — are the lone exceptions to Apple’s hardware doldrums. These were notable updates.

Stalled rumors

Even rumors of new Apple hardware have been languishing in recent years.

• Steve Jobs, as quoted in his biography, said: “I’d like to create an integrated television set that is completely easy to use. It will have the simplest user interface you could imagine. I finally cracked it.” Perhaps so. But there is still no sign of any forthcoming product based on what Steve figured out.

• Similarly, the rumor mill has been churning for several years with predictions about some sort of Apple “iWatch” or other wearable technology. It looks like Apple will finally deliver on this next week. Even so, the current rumors are that the device won’t ship until 2015.

Revving up

Don’t get me wrong. I’m not the sort to lament that Apple “must” do something about any of this or face certain “doom.” To the contrary, Apple appears to be doing quite well financially and shows every sign of continuing to do so. Its stock is hovering at an all-time high and its quarterly revenue continues to set records.

Still, over the long haul, the technology field is not one that rewards complacency and treading water. To quote Steve Jobs again: “If you don’t cannibalize yourself, someone else will.”

Apple knows this. And, whatever the reasons behind the slow pace of change these past few years, it looks to be over. As Eddie Cue stated a few months ago: “Later this year, we’ve got the best product pipeline that I’ve seen in my 25 years at Apple.”

Well, “later this year” is here now. And it all begins Tuesday. With the iPhone 6. And, most likely, an iWatch. And possibly more. Additional new products (iPads, Macs?) are expected to arrive in October. Assuming Apple delivers on Eddie Cue’s prediction, the doldrums of the past few years will soon be a distant memory.

You might say Apple’s been on a “break” these past few years. If so, Apple appears ready to heed the advice of President Bartlet: “Break’s over.”