Assessing iSlate rumors

Everyone’s waiting for the Apple’s rumored tablet device to be released. It looks like the wait may soon be over. I’ve been going through the rumors, assessing what I think is likely to be true and what is not. Here is my current assessment of where things stand (based on nothing than my own speculation and experience):

• The name of the device is iSlate.

Accuracy confidence: 75%. Ultimately, whatever it’s called won’t matter as much as what it does.

• The iSlate will be announced on January 26 at Yerba Buena media event.

Accuracy confidence: 95%.

• The iSlate will be more like an iPhone than a MacBook. In particular, it will be based on the iPhone OS rather than Mac OS X. It will have an iPhone-like Home screen rather than a Finder. Many apps that now run on the iPhone will run on the iSlate as well. Of course, this all means that the iSlate will have a touchscreen.

Accuracy confidence: 90%.

• The iSlate will have a 10″ display, or close to it. Some iPhone apps will need to be rewritten to accommodate the larger screen size.

Accuracy confidence: 80%.

• The iSlate will include a new “ebook reader” capability. Some rumors suggest that the iSlate will be entirely an ebook reader, not a tablet computing device at all. I am skeptical of this. My gut tells me that Apple is planning something bigger than just a competitor for the Kindle and Nook. Much bigger. See this Daring Fireball article for exactly how big; I completely agree with the overall point of this article.

Accuracy confidence: 95%.

• The iSlate will feature expanded streaming audio and video features. For example, I expect a subscription service that offers movie streaming, akin to what is now available via Netflix. Actually, this is likely to be expanded to all iTunes users, whatever device you have.

Accuracy confidence: 45%.

• The iSlate will not be released in January. More likely, it will not be available until March or even later. Some suggest that its arrival may have to wait until iPhone OS 4.0 is released this summer. I doubt we will have to wait that long or Apple would not be announcing the product in January. But it’s possible.

Accuracy confidence that we will have to wait at least until March: 75%.

• The device will not be a phone, but it will support 3G/4G data services.

Accuracy confidence: 85%.

• The device will not have a foldable cover or a physical keyboard. That is, its form factor will not resemble a MacBook. Rather it will be more of an open “slate,” as its name implies. In that respect, it will look and behave more like the Kindle. There will similarly be no physical keyboard.

Accuracy confidence: 75%.

• Will you be able to attach standard computer peripherals to the device? Most critically, will there be a keyboard accessory? I am going to go with yes here. Will there be a USB port? Will you be able to attach optical drives or hard drives to the device? I am going to go with no here, at least for this first iteration of the iSlate.

Accuracy confidence: 40%.

• Apple stock will take a hit immediately after the announcement. When it does, it may be an excellent time to buy Apple, as stock will bounce back after iSlate becomes a big success.

Accuracy confidence: 70%.

• The iSlate will not be on display at Macworld Expo (even though the event takes place a week later at almost the same location where Apple will host its media event). For whatever reason, Apple appears to be determined to snub the Expo as much as possible.

Accuracy confidence: 60%.

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Terrorism and risk tolerance

By all accounts, we screwed up in not stopping Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab from ever boarding the Christmas Day flight from Amsterdam to Detroit. But before we become too absorbed in self-blame, it’s worth noting a few points:

• Almost all of the red flags (he paid cash for ticket; he had no luggage; his father had warned U.S. about his extremist links) were things that should have led to his detection and apprehension before he ever made it to the security screening device. Certainly, no changes to in-flight rules and regulations would have helped in these matters. So let’s not get carried away with ridiculous in-flight procedures (such as turning off the televised map that shows the plane’s location or forcing you to stow your laptop for the last hour of flight) that will almost certainly not have any effect on any future terrorist attempts.

• While there are definitely things that need to change to prevent another similar terrorist attempt, this doesn’t mean that our current system was a complete failure. Yes, some luck was involved in the attempt not succeeding. And the actions of other passengers certainly played a role. But I believe it is also true that the attempt failed at least partly because our current security measures forced the terrorist to use a low-probability-of-success method. Otherwise, he would have had many more “desirable” options to choose from.

• We can never be 100% certain that an attack will not succeed. As we try to get the risk closer and closer to zero, there is a trade-off: we give up more and more of our privacy rights and we make flying less and less enjoyable (some would argue it is already completely unenjoyable; count me in this group). At some point, we have to ask: Is the extra security worth the trade-off? For example: Would it be okay to require that every passenger be strip searched if that meant that the odds of a terrorist attacked dropped only from 2 in a million to 1 in a million? I would say no. Bear in mind that no lives have been lost as a result of a terrorist attack on a U.S. plane since 2001.

So let’s fix what needs fixing. But let’s not get carried away and ruin what is already working well enough.

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The Dover Trial Merits Top Ten Consideration

Having now read several “top ten news stories of the decade” lists, such as this one from the Associated Press, I was disappointed to see that one of my top choices was nowhere to be found.

What is my choice? It’s the Kitzmiller v. Dover Area School District “evolution” trial of 2005. Without doubt, it is the most significant such trial in U.S. history, easily outdistancing even the Scopes trial.

At least for supporters of evolution, the Dover trial showcased the arguments and motives of both sides of this debate in the starkest and clearest of terms. Scientists were permitted to offer evidence for evolution with a detail and scope rarely if ever before seen in a legal forum. The deceptions and religious motives of the opposing side were made equally clear. This culminated in a judge’s ruling that was a more thorough indictment of “intelligent design” than anyone had predicted — or might have even hoped for.

With related stories, such as the voting out of office of all the Dover school board members who supported the intelligent design policy, this story combined melodrama with science. No wonder than that it has been the subject of numerous books (including my favorite, The Battle over the Meaning of Everything) and a superb Nova episode (Judgement Day: Intelligent Design on Trial).

The evolution debate casts a wide shadow — far beyond this trial. While there is no debate among scientists, the issue continues to play a role in national politics, cropping up for example in the 2008 presidential election via Sarah Palin’s support for creationism.

The Dover trial did not put an end to the creationist/intelligent design movement. No trial could do that. But it has apparently resulted in a permanent shift in strategy. The movement has curtailed, if not entirely cut back, its attempts to force intelligent design into school curricula based on claims that ID is science — especially so if a court challenge seems likely. If for no other reason, this trial deserves serious consideration as one of the top news stories of the decade. It’s certainly on my list.

Posted in Evolution, Politics, Science | 1 Comment

(Atheist) Signs for Our Times

In a New York Times column, Nicholas Kristof expresses hope that a new crop of books, with titles like “The Case for God,” will lead to a truce in the “religious wars.” This is just one of several articles I have read recently — that all seem to suggest that prominent atheists (such as Richard Dawkins, Christopher Hitchens and Sam Harris) represent a form of intolerance that is equal to those of religious fundamentalists at the opposite extreme. What we need to find, so the argument goes, is some middle compromise.

I have already stated my general opposition to this viewpoint. I won’t repeat all of those arguments here. I will, however, point out one particular dismay: Although the “truce” articles pay lip service to the need for accommodations by “both sides,” the onus of responsibility always seems to fall on the atheists. It’s as if they are saying: “Things were going so well before people like Dawkins came along to upset the apple cart. Can’t we just return to the civility we used to have?”

First off, unless you ignore the inflammatory statements made over the years by religious extremists, it can hardly be said that things were civil before Richard Dawkins arrived on the scene. To the contrary, any superficial appearance of civility was only because religion has had the playing field to itself, fending off criticism by claiming that it should be immune to critique. The “new atheists” did not create the current controversy. Rather, they are simply the ones to be outspoken in pointing out that there is another possibility to consider (a bit like the child who shouts “the emperor has no clothes”). If one believes that God does not exist, then it follows that all religions are wrong and are based on a myth. It is not intolerant to point out this implication, any more than it is intolerant to point out that humans are the product of evolution.

All of this, however, is not the primary reason for my blog entry today. Rather, it is something more specific. On December 2, a New York Times article described a new advertising campaign for atheism. It features signs on buses and trains with statements such as “No god? … No problem!” and “Be good for goodness’ sake.” A major sponsor of the campaign is the American Humanist Association.

In a letter to the editor, Edd Doerr (a former head of the American Humanist Association) wrote that he was “embarrassed” by the campaign. He argued that we should avoid the divisiveness resulting from these ads and instead focus on those things we (atheists and religious believers) hold in common, such as “peace, civil liberties, religious freedom, the environment, social justice…” He described the signs as “name-calling and invective.”

Whew! I was both saddened and angry to see this letter. To me, it captures almost everything that is wrong with the current criticism. To have it written by someone within the humanist movement was especially disheartening.

First of all, to suggest that these signs represent “name-calling and invective” is almost libelous. They are incredibly tame, especially compared to the true invective that is often directed toward atheists. “Be good for goodness’ sake”? Where is the invective in this? If atheists are not to be “allowed” to express their views even in these mild terms, in what form can we express our views? Or, to turn it around, should any signs promoting a religious belief, no matter how mild, be banned as well?

But let’s put all that aside. Suppose we accept the idea, however wrong, that these signs are provocative and hostile in some way. Does this mean that these signs are necessarily a bad thing? Hardly. When it comes to making progress against discrimination, being provocative has often been a requirement.

Where would African Americans be today if Rosa Parks had quietly sat in the back of the bus? Or if Martin Luther King had never staged a sit-in? Where would women’s rights be today if not for the provocations of people such as Betty Friedan and Gloria Steinham — women who were criticized as “strident” in expressing their beliefs?

The actions of such people may not be the only ingredients necessary to move the country forward. Conciliation will also be needed. But without these actions to lead the way, there will be no movement at all.

As such, these signs represent a mild and relatively polite form of political activism. If nothing else, they help make it more acceptable for atheists to be open about their beliefs and will ultimately lead to greater tolerance of such beliefs (see this Wikipedia page for a discussion of discrimination against atheists). We may actually already be seeing the beginnings of this shift. As pointed out in the above-cited NYT article, there is a “growing number of nonbelievers. Fifteen percent of Americans identified themselves as having ‘no religion’ in a 2008, up from 8 percent in 1990…”

Sorry Edd, but it is the rest of us who should be embarrassed by you. Your letter represents the sort of frightened head-in-the-sand attitude that, if followed a half-century ago, would have resulted in blacks still drinking from separate water fountains today. As an atheist, I am proud of these signs. I also look forward to the day when they are no longer needed.

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